Churchill Downs 🏇🏾// Sat., May 3, 2025
- Fink
- May 3
- 6 min read
Happy Derby Day! 🏇🌹🌹🏇
Today is a day to celebrate, not only because we have been working hard to reach this moment since prep races started in November, but also because we get to honor our friend and the namesake of our horse racing rankings, Mr. William "Bill" Lundin. As mentioned in a post a few weeks ago, we are renaming our Kentucky Derby Party in his honor at the Turtle, where we all first met.
Before we dive into the races today, I want to take a moment to talk about Bill. However, I don’t want this to be a sad occasion because Bill would want us to be happy, enjoying drinks, and cherishing the friendships he built over the last decade.
Here’s a snippet from what I wrote on the first card after Bill left us physically in late March. We like to think he came back as a goose that now lives behind the bar—just a little inside joke with our regulars:
"Bill loved the lead-up to the derby because he had a whole week to study each race, looking for that horse others might overlook, or confirming that the favorite was indeed his top choice. We named our horse racing algorithm after him because he was the one who brought us all together during COVID to help us take our minds off things. He proposed that there must be a way to use different metrics to identify winners. Bill will be missed immensely, and it was hard not to reserve a spot for him to cap the big races today.
If you didn’t know Bill, please take a moment to enjoy a “Top Shelf” (a Coors Light) this week and on Derby Day, to remember this gentle soul. R.I.P. William "Bill" Lundin. Dance with Shirley, and send us some good vibes to keep finding winners in your honor!"
From Mr. W.;
Remembering Bill Lundin:
Whenever you'd walk into the World Headquarters of Turtle Sports (aka - the Glass Turtle), you'd think two things:
1) I hope Bill is there &
2) I hope no one is sitting next to him so I can claim that barstool.
From that special vantage point, you could enjoy his life observations, fun stories, fatherly advice, many jokes, opinions on his beloved S.F. Giants & Niners & of course his thoughts and strategy predicting winners in the next horse race. Our horse racing picks are not called our Lundin Line picks just to honor Bill, but rather because he put together our "special sauce formula" for his Lundin Line namesake.
In the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, Bill was nothing short of giddy with excitement as he dissected the numbers & prepared for his Derby Day bets. He was like a kid before Christmas. (except, Bill was always looking for a sweet paying exacta or trifecta "under the tree").
Beyond the fun of bar & horse racing stuff, Bill was a special man who touched countless people over the years
It's an extreme privilege for me & Mr. Fink to continue what he started. Now --- as Bill would say -
enough with that shit, let's gets back to drinking & placing some bets! 🍻🏇💰.
R.I.P., my friend 🌹
Alright, Bill, we hear you so... let's get to the reason everyone is here—IT'S KENTUCKY DERBY DAY!!! That's right, after building up to this day all week, it has finally arrived. We are still in Louisville, KY, at Churchill Downs, where the "Run for the Roses," also known as the fastest two minutes in sports, will highlight an exciting day of racing.
For the record, there are two races following the Derby, which creates even more opportunities to cash some tickets. Today's card features a total of 14 races, including nine stakes races, and many runners. We always joke about the number of horses running, but today we truly have a large field, with no race having fewer than nine runners and an average of 13 horses per race.
Yesterday, on Oaks Day, we picked six of our top selections as winners, achieving a positive return on investment overall. We also had a couple of our second picks win at decent prices, so we’re considering yesterday a success. The Oaks was won by Good Cheer, one of our best bets, and she looked fantastic! Although the track became sloppy, she managed to come off the pace and pass several horses, ultimately staying undefeated. We’re excited to see what her connections have planned next.
As we know, the feature race today is the 12th race, the 1 and 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby, with a purse of $3,000,000, exclusively for three-year-olds. While fillies can participate in this race, they had their day yesterday; today it’s the boys’ turn to battle it out.
Both of our cappers have weighed in on the Derby and on race 6, the Pat Day Mile. I’ve compiled a list of my top six Derby futures, while Mr. W has stuck to the traditional four horses, as that’s our usual approach.
The weather today isn't what we initially expected; we’ll see highs in the mid-60s with rain throughout the day. Currently, the track is rated fast and the turf is firm, so hopefully, it remains that way. Regardless, it promises to be a fantastic day of racing!
The Kentucky Derby began in 1875, founded by Meriwether Lewis Clark Jr., inspired by England's Epsom Derby and France’s Grand Prix de Paris. Clark organized the race to promote thoroughbred breeding and racing in the United States, and the inaugural event took place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. That first race featured 15 horses and attracted a crowd of around 10,000 spectators. Over time, the Derby grew in popularity and prestige, becoming the first and most famous leg of the American Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. The race has seen legendary champions, including Secretariat, who set a still-standing speed record in 1973. Despite wars, economic downturns, and social change, the Derby has continued uninterrupted every year, making it a beloved symbol of resilience, tradition, and American sporting excellence.
🏇Kentucky Derby Fun Facts 🏇
465 roses are hand-picked and carefully sewn by hand onto the garland of roses for the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The Rose Garland weighs approximately 40 lbs.
The smallest field at the Kentucky Derby consisted of just three horses in 1892.
The speed of the Kentucky Derby horses is typically around 37 mph. The world record for top speed by a thoroughbred is 43.97 mph, though this was not clocked at the Kentucky Derby.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby was watched by 16.7 million people (averaged) on NBC and Peacock, as well as the nearly 157,000 fans who were in attendance at Churchill Downs.
The jockeys with the most Kentucky Derby wins are Bill Hartack and Eddie Arcaro, each with five wins.
The official Kentucky Derby prize pool is distributed as follows: $3.1 million to the winner, $1 million to the runner-up, and $500,000 to third place, while fourth and fifth receive $250,000 and $150,000, respectively.
Need help picking winners? We've got you covered! Our (Always Free) Lundin Line's top picks and best bets are below. We use them to help narrow the field while putting our tickets together. The first post will be here soon, so don't be late -
It's time to get #InTheMoney! 💰💰💰
Churchill Downs 🏇🏾 // Sat., May 3rd, 2025
First Post @ 11:00 EDT/ 8:00 (PDT)
R1: 11-2-6-12
R2: 10-7-6-5
R3: 9⭑-2-6-5
R4Ⓢ: 3-6-13-9
R5Ⓢ: 7-10-6-5
R6Ⓢ: 1-6-4-3
Mr. Fink: 1-6-4-3
Mr. W: 6-1-3-4
R7Ⓢ: 8-9-10-5
R8Ⓢ: 2-10-4-11
R9Ⓢ: 7-5-2-10
R10Ⓢ: 2-8-12-1
R11Ⓢ: 2-7-10-4
🏇R12Ⓢ: 151st Kentucky Derby
8* Journalism
18 Sovereignty
9 Burnham Square
7 Luxor Cafe
17 Sandman
Mr. Fink: 8-18-9-17-16-1
Mr. W: 8-18-7-17
R13: 11-14-8-9
R14: 12-10-5-11
🏇 = Featured Race(s)
⭑Best Bet(s)
R3: Tiz Secure (#9)
R12: Journalism (#8)
Ⓢtakes Races
R4: 200K Knicks Go Overnight S.
1 Mile on Dirt for 4 Yr. Olds & Up
R5: 750K Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. S. (G2)
1 Mile on Turf for Fillies & Mares, 4 Yrs. Old & Up
R6: 600K Pat Day Mile S. (G2)
1 Mile On Dirt for 3 Yr. Olds
R7: 600K Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. (G2)
5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf for 3 Yr. Olds & Up
R8: 1 Mil. Churchill Downs S. (G1)
7 Furlongs on Dirt for 4 Yr. Olds & Up
R9: 1 Mil. American Turf S. (G1)
1 1/16 Miles on Turf for 3 Yr. Olds
R10: 1 Mil. Derby City Distaff S. (G1)
7 Furlongs on Dirt for Fillies & Mares, 4 Yrs. Old & Up
R11: 1 Mil. Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1)
1 1/8 Miles on Turf for 4 Yr. Olds & Up
🏇R12: 5 Mil. KY Derby (G1)
1 1/4 Miles on Dirt for 3 Yr. Olds
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!
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/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
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