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To Add or Not To Add

Updated: Apr 30, 2021

It's almost time for the 147th Run for the Roses. By now, I'm sure you've read a ton of analyses & watched a bunch of preview shows. So what's left? Oh right - eventually you'll have to place a bet or two (or 17) & the question we'll all have to answer for our exotic bets is "How many friggin' horses do I include?" or to paraphrase Billy Shakes (that's what his friends called him) - "To Add or Not To Add". Well maybe we can help you answer that question by giving our recommendations for each of the 20 horses hoping to be the first to cross the finish line on May 1st.



Sunday, May 1, 2021

Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1)

Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Race #12 - Post time: 6:57 ET


(For our Lundin Line Picks & Best Bets for all of today's 14 races @ Churchill Downs, click HERE! )

 

🏇🏾# 1 Known Agenda

M/L: 6-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher/Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.


Add (Our Lundin Line's #3 Pick)

- Todd Pletcher is Winning at 31 % over the last 30 days (72 starts), with a +85% ROI & ITM at 67%

- Irad Ortiz Jr. may be the hottest jockey in the country right now. Over the last 10 days, he's Winning @ 31% & ITM @ 71%.

- #1 Post Position shouldn't be a problem due to 1) new starting gate that puts the #1 position in what would have been around # or #3. 2) not a lot of speed to his outside until #3 Medina Spirit & 3) Presser running style out of the 1st position bodes well for the the 1 1/4 distance of the Derby.

 

🏇🏾# 2 Like The King

M/L: 50-1

Trainer: Wesley Ward/Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke


Don't Add

- No wins on dirt

- Avg. Equibase Speed of 82 is 19th/20

- This will be his first race at this Class Rating & he is 20th/20 in avg. Class.

 

🏇🏾# 3 Brooklyn Strong

M/L: 50-1

Trainer: Daniel Velazquez/Jockey: Umberto Rispoli


Don't Add

- Disappointing 5th place finish in his last Race (Wood Memorial S.)

- Rispoli is riding for Velazquez for the first time

- Equibase avg. Speed is 84 (17th/20)

 

🏇🏾# 4 Keepmeinmind

M/L: 50-1

Trainer: Robertino Diodoro/Jockey: David Cohen


Don't Add

- Lackluster effort in last 2 races (Rebel S. & Blue Grass S.)

- Since the current Derby Prep Race point system started in 2013, only Orb (2013) has won with Keepmeinmind's Sustained running style.

 

🏇🏾# 5 Sainthood

M/L: 50-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher/Jockey: Corey Lanerie


Add

- When Plectcher has started 4 horses in the Derby, at least one has found a way to get ITM.

- 5th Position should allow him to get comfortable out of the gate & for Lanerie to allow him to run his Presser running style.

- Difficult trip in the Jeff Ruby yet still re-established himself for an impressive Place finish.

 

🏇🏾# 6 O Besos

M/L: 20-1

Trainer: Gregory Foley/Jockey: Pedroza Marcelino


Add

- Came from 8th (7 lengths behind) to finish 3rd behind Hot Rod Charlie & Midnight Bourbon in the Louisiana Derby

- Impressive workouts.

- Would be the first closer since Orb (2013) to win the Derby. BTW - O Besos is the son of Orb.

 

🏇🏾# 7 Mandaloun

M/L: 15-1

Trainer: Brad Cox/Jockey: Florent Geroux


Don't Add

- Inexplicable poor 6th place finish in last race (LA Derby)

- Over the last 10 days (21 starts), Florent Geroux is only winning at 5% with a -90% ROI

(We should note: Mandaloun is 1 of 5 horse to have a career Beyer Speed of at least 95 & BRIS of at least 100.)

 

🏇🏾# 8 Medina Spirit

M/L: 15-1

Trainer: Bob Baffert/Jockey: John Velazquez


Add

- Bob Baffert has 6 wins in the Derby. Hard to not include his only horse entered this year.

- 2nd place finish after the battle with Rock Your World in the Santa Anita & a Win in the Robert B. Lewis over Roman Centurian & Hot Rod Charlie

- 8th position should be perfect for his running style and speed to finish strong.

 

🏇🏾# 9 Hot Rod Charlie

M/L: 8-1

Trainer: Doug O'Neil/Jockey: Flavien Prat


Add (Our Lundin Line's 4th Pick)

- Won impressively in the LA Derby over Midnight Bourbon & O Besos

- LA Derby was the longest Prep Race at 1 3/16 m.

- Only 1 of 5 horse to have a career Beyer Speed of at least 95 & BRIS of at least 100.

- Jockey Flavian Prat is winning at 27% & ITM at 68% over the last 10 days (37 starts).

- Has won on 4 different tracks.

- Drew a favorable position for his Midpack running style.

 

🏇🏾# 10 Midnight Bourbon

M/L: 20-1

Trainer: Steve Asmussen/Jockey: Mike Smith


Add

- Very consistent in 3 consecutive Prep races (1st in the Lecomte, 3rd in the Risen Star & 2nd in the LA Derby) as he seemed to revel in the tight competition.

- Impressive 2nd place finish in the LA Derby to Hot Rod Charlie's win.

- Mike Smith's pedigree & 25% Win rate over the last 10 days (8 starts).

- 10th position should allow him to get out front where he wants to race.

 

🏇🏾# 11 Dynamic One

M/L: 20-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher/Jockey: Jose Ortiz


Add

- Came up just short in the Wood Mem., being caught by his stablemate Bourbonic who had the race of a lifetime.

- Has faced very strong competition in every race of his career.

- Has been impressive & turning heads with his workouts.

- Another Pletcher horse.

- Ortiz is winning at 30%, ITM at 68% with a +20% ROI over the last 10 days (40 starts)

 

🏇🏾# 12 Helium

M/L: 50-1

Trainer: Mark Case/Jockey: Julien Leparoux


Don't Add

- Undefeated & off a win in the S. Tampa Bay Derby, but previous 2 wins against lower level competition.

- Will only be his 2nd race on dirt

- Leparoux has been cold over the last 30 days (54 starts), wining only at 9%.

 

🏇🏾# 13 Hidden Stash

M/L: 50-1

Trainer: Vicki Oliver/Jockey: Rafael Bejarano


Don't Add

- Hasn't won since an Allowance race in Nov.

- Picked up points in 3 consecutive Prep races but regressed in terms of his finishes.

- Sustained running style & large field should further his regression in Stakes races

 

🏇🏾# 14 Essential Quality

M/L: 2-1

Trainer: Brad Cox/Jockey: Luis Saez


Add (our Lundin Line's #1 pick)

- Only 1 of 5 horses to have a career Beyer Speed of at least 95 & BRIS of at least 100

- 5-0 record (4 Stakes).

- Strong last Race beating Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass.

- Meets the 3 requirements for the majority of Derby winners since 2013 (with the exceptions of last year's Sept. running, the DQ of Maximum Security & Orby's Win in 2013) Those are: Won a 100 pt. Derby Prep Race, Undefeated as a 3 yr. old & races at or near the front.

- Over the past 30 days (109 starts), Saez is Winning at 28%

 

🏇🏾# 15 Rock Your World

M/L: 5-1

Trainer: John Sadler/Jockey: Joel Rosario


Add

- First dirt race was an extremely impressive wire-to-wire Win in the Santa Anita Derby where he beat Medina Spirit by 4 lengths

- Like Essential Quality - he also meets the 3 requirements for the majority of Derby winners since 2013 - those are: Won a 100 pt. Derby Prep Race, Undefeated as a 3 yr. old & races at or near the front. (see note on Essential Quality for exceptions)

- Undefeated with his highest Equibase Speed Rating of 103 earned in the SA Derby (also the only horse to earn a triple digit Beyer for last race within the field)

- Rosario is Winning at 39% over the last 10 days (31 starts)

 

🏇🏾# 16 King Fury

M/L: 20-1

Trainer: Ken McPeek/Jockey: Brian Hernandez


Don't Add

- Prior to his win in the Lexington, had two disappointing finishes including a 7th place finish in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juv. behind Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie & Keepmeinmind.

- Avg. Speed is 86 (15th/20)

- Unlikely to find a path to close from behind like he did in the Lexington.

 

🏇🏾# 17 Highly Motivated

M/L: 10-1

Trainer: Chad Brown/Jockey: Javier Castellano


Add (Our Lundin Line's #2 pick)

- Finished just a neck behind Essential Quality in the Blue Grass.

- Only 1 of 5 horses to have a career Beyer Speed of at least 95 & BRIS of at least 100

- Even in the "jinxed" 17th position, should be able to get his natural position near the early pace.

- Avg. Equibase Speed is 98 (4th/20)

- Over the last 10 days (30 starts), Castellano is wining @ 23%.

- Even after a bobbled start, was able to finish in 3rd in the Gotham.

 

🏇🏾# 18 Super Stock

M/L: 30-1

Trainer: Steve Asmussen/Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.


Don't Add

- While it was an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby, beating both Caddo River and Concert Tour, a duplication of that kind of perfect trip is highly unlikely with the 20 horse Derby field.

- Prior to the AR Derby, his last win was in the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity in Aug against far lesser talent than he'll face in the Derby

- One of the horses that was hurt by the departure of true speed horses like Caddo River.

 

🏇🏾# 19 Soup and Sandwich

M/L: 30-1

Trainer: Mark Casse/Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione


Don't Add

- Only race against this level of competition was a 2nd place finish to Known Agenda in the FL Derby. It was a very nice effort, but with the 19th post position, will be hard pressed to duplicate.

- Does lead the field with an avg. Eq. of 101, but probably won't be enough.

- Gaffalione has 4 leading jockey titles at Churchill, but over the last 10 days (37 starts) has a -49% ROI

 

🏇🏾# 20 Bourbonic

M/L: 30-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher/Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche


Don't Add

- Although an impressive win in the Wood Mem. @ 72-1, the Derby will not set up anywhere close to the same, especially in regard to speed where he is 20th/20 with an Eq. Avg. Speed of 79.

- Sustained running style against this field, like other horses in the field, is a reason to look elsewhere.







Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!


-TSL



/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors

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