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Toyota Blue Grass S. / What We Like & Don't Like

Updated: Apr 3, 2021

Sat., April 3, 2021

Keeneland Race Course / Lexington, KY

Race 11 @ 3:35 EDT

800K Toyota Blue Grass S. (G2)

The Road To The KY Derby Points: 100-40-20-10


For our Lundin Line picks for ALL the races today @ Keeneland, click HERE!


For our analysis of the Wood Memorial S. @ Aqueduct, click HERE!

For our analysis of the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, click HERE!

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 1 Hidden Stash

(Constitution/Making Mark Money)

M/L: 20/1


Like:

1) In 6 career starts, only 1 finish not ITM (4th on 8/30/20 (first race))

2) Finished 2nd in last race - G2 S. Tampa Derby on Mar. 6th (Helium Won).

3) Earned highest Eq. Speed of 93 @ in S. Tam. Derby.

Don't Like:

1) Trainer Victoria Oliver has 0 Wins & a -100% ROI in Stakes races.

2) Avg. Finish Pace Rating is 89 (6th/9)

3) Pace projection for the race may not favor his running style.

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 2 Untreated

(Nyquist/Fully Living)

M/L: 10/1


Like:

1) Won by 8 3/4 lengths in last start (36K Msw @ Tampa on Mar. 6th) & earner a 101 Eq. Speed figure.

2) Strong Avg. Finish Pace of 100 (2nd/9)

3) Over the last 30 days (59 starts), Trainer Todd Pletcher is Winning @ 22%.

Don't Like:

1) Moving Up In Class for his first Stakes race.

2) 6th place finish in first (& only other) race.

3) Over last year (13 starts), Pletcher w/ Jockey Joel Rosarion have a -62% ROI)

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 3 Highly Motivated

(Into Mischief /Strong Incentive)

M/L : 3/1


Like:

1) Won Nyquest S. on 11/6 @ Keeneland & 3rd in last race (G3 Gotham S. @ Aqu @ 1 mi.)

2) Avg. Speed = 96 (2nd/9) & Finish Pace = 102 (1st/9)

3) Strong Winning % over last 30 days for Jockey Javier Castellano (26%) & Trainer Chad C. Brown ( 25%)

Don't Like:

1) Only 2nd race at 1+ mile.

2) 8th/9 in Early Pace (67)

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 4 Essential Quality

(Tapit / Delightful Quality)

M/L : 3/5


Like:

1) Unbeaten (4 starts) including G1 TVG Breeders' Cup & G1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity.

2) In last race, G3 Southwest S. @ OP on Feb.27, earned his highest Speed of 105

3) Trainer Brad Cox w/ Jockey Luis Saez over the last year (24 starts) Winning @ 38%, ITM @ 67%, ROI @ +42%

Don't Like:

1) We'll be honest - There is nothing we found to dislike about him.

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 5 Rombauer

(Twirling Candy / Cashmere)

M/L : 15/1


Like:

1) Last race a Win in the El Camino Real Derby @ Golden Gate.

2) Leads field in Early & Middle Pace (4th/9 in Finish Pace)

3) Over Last 10 days (19 starts), Jockey Florent Geroux is Winning @ 26%

Don't Like:

1) Only 1 race on dirt (5th place in TVG Breeder's Cup on Nov. 20th.)

2) Unimpressive trip in TVG Breeders' Cup.

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 6 Leblon

(Broken Vow / Trade Balance)

M/L : 50/1


Like:

1) ITM in 4 out 5 career starts.

2) Well raced & competitive at this distance.

3) Earned his highest Speed figure (96) in last Race (2/11 @ OP @ 1 1/6)

Don't Like:

1) Avg. Speed of 75 is 9th/9

2) Up in Class to his first Stakes Race.

3) Jockey Albin Jimenez over last 30 days (38 starts) Winning @ 8%

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 7 Hush of a Storm

(Creative Cause / Hush Now)

M/L : 15/1


Like:

1) After a disappointing debut, unbeaten since Dec.

2) Last race - a Win in the J. Battaglia S @ Turfway on Feb. 26th (Like the King was 2nd)

3) Trainer William Morey is Winning @ 30% over the last 30 days (20 starts)

Don't Like:

1) Middle of pack in Pace Ratings & Avg. Speed of 83 (6th/9)

2) Over last 10 days (27 starts), Jockey Santiago Gonzalez is Winning @ 4%, ROI @ -89%

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 8 Sittin On Go

(Brody's Cause / Set'n On Ready)

M/L : 30/1


Like:

1) Trainer Dale Romans with Jockey Corey Lanerie (58 start) have a +11% ROI

2) Romans' horses do well when moving Up In Class. (Winning @ 13% over past year)

Don't Like:

1) Not competitive since last Win on Sept. 5th @ G3 Iroquis S @ Churchill Downs.

2) Avg. Speed of 81 is 8th/9

3) Over last 30 days (118 starts), Jockey Lanerie Winning @ 8%

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๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ# 9 Keepmeinmend

(Laoban / Inclination)

M/L : 8/1


Like:

1) Won the G2 KY Jockey Club S. on Nov 28th @ Churchill Downs (1 1/16)

2) Avg. Speed of 89 is 3rd/9

3) ITM in 4 out of 5 career races

Don't Like:

1) Finished 6th/8 last race (G2 Rebel S. @ OP on 3/13) after he "failed to fire"

2) Avg. Finish Pace = 89 (8th/9)

3) At this distance/surface over the last year (187 starts), Jockey David Cohen has a -57% ROI




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Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!


-TSL



/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors

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