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Runhappy Santa Anita Derby - What We Like & Don't Like

Sat., April 3, 2021

Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA

Race 8 @ 4:15 PDT

Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1)

The Road to the KY Derby Points: 100-40-20-10


For our #LundinLine picks for ALL races today @ Santa Anita, click HERE!


For our analysis of the Wood Memorial S. @ Aqueduct, click HERE!

Fo our analysis of the Toyota Blue Grass S. @ Kenneland, click HERE!


 

🏇🏾# 1 Roman Centurian

(Empire Maker/Spare Change)

M/L : 8/1


Like:

1) Finished 4th in San Felipe S. @ SA on Mar. 6th

(1) Life Is Good, 2) Medina Spirit, 3) Dream Shake

2) 2nd in Robert B. Lewis S. @ SA on Jan. 30th & earning highest Eq. Speed of 97

3) Avg. Speed of 87 is 5th/10

Don't Like:

1) Poor Early & Middle Pace Ratings (7th/10 in both)

2) Over last 30 days (9 starts), Trainer Simon Callaghan has 0 Wins & -100% ROI

3) No challenge to Median Spirit in last race

 

🏇🏾# 2 Dream Shake

(Twirling Candy / Even Song)

M/L : 7/2


Like:

1) Won debut race & 3rd in San Felipe S. @ SA on Mar. 6th (1 1/16)

2) Earned a 94 Eq. Speed in San Felipe

3) Over last 30 days (81 starts), Jockey Flavien Prat is Winning @ 38%

Don't Like:

1) Only 3rd career race & only 2nd at this distance.

2) Was beaten badly in San Felipe (albeit to Life Is Good)

3) Trainer Peter Eurton has 0 Wins in Stakes over the past year (24 starts)

 

🏇🏾# 3 Rock Your World

(Candy Ride / Charm Maker)

M/L : 4/1


Like:

1) Back-to-Back Wins to start career. (last: Pasadena S. @ SA on Feb. 27th (1 mi.))

2) 2 starts - but - Avg. Speed (96) & Finish Pace (98) are both 2nd/10

3) Jockey Umberto Rospoli Winning @ 27% over last 10 days (15 starts

Don't Like:

1) First time running on dirt.

2) Up In Class from 100K Stakes to G1 Stakes

3) Trainer John Sadler's has -51% ROI with horses coming of this length layoff.

 

🏇🏾# 4 Parnelli

(Quality Road/Sip Sip)

M/L : 20/1


Like:

1) 3rd in G3 Sham S. @ SA on Jan. 2 (1 mi.)

2) Trainer John Shirreffs is Winning @ 38% over the last 30 days (8 starts)

3) ITM in 5 career races except for 5th place in Robert B. Lewis S. on Jan. 30th.

Don't Like:

1) Avg. Speed of 85 is 7th/10 and Finish Pace is 88 (8th/10)

2) Shirreffs has 0 starts with Jockey Edwin Maldonado

3) Disappointing trip in Robert B. Lewis.

 

🏇🏾# 5 Back Ring Luck

(Malibu Moon/Patti O'Rahy)

M/L : 20/1


Like:

1) Back-to-back Wins in last 2 starts

2) Trainer John W. Sadler is Winning @ 23% over last 30 days (44 starts)

3) Earned highest Speed fig. (97) in last race (62.5K Aoc @ OP on Mar. 5th - 1 1/6)

Don't Like:

1) Ave. Speed of 55 is 10th/10 & Very poor Pace Ratings

2) Jockey Tyler Baze is Wining @ only 8% over the last 10 days (12 starts)

3) Moving Up In Class to first Stakes, a G1 Stakes.

 

🏇🏾# 6 Ottothelegend

(Uncle Mo/House of Danzing)

M/L : 12/1


Like:

1) Won last race (86K Msw @ OP on Mar. 6th - 1 1/16)

2) Jockey Mario Gutierrez is Winning @ 25% over last 10 days (8 starts)

3) Avg. Speed of 86 is middle of the pack (6th/10)

Don't Like:

1) Poor Pace Ratings

2) Moving Up In Class to first Stakes.

3) Trainer Steven Asmussen has 0 starts with Gutierrez

 

🏇🏾# 7 Medina Spirit

(Protonica/Mongolian Changa)

M/L : 5/2


Like:

1) Won or Placed in 4 career starts (last was a 2nd in the San Filipe S. to Life Is Good on Mar. 6th)

2) Won the Robert B. Lewis S. @ SA on Jan. 30th

3) 1st/10 in Avg. Speed & Early, Middle & Finish Pace

4) 109 Speed fig. in 2nd place finish in Sham S. @ SA on Jan. 2nd

5) Trainer Bob Baffert is Winning @ 33% over the last 30 days (30 starts)

Don't Like:

1) Beaten by 8 lengths in the San Felipe S. to Life Is Good

2) Jockey John Velazquez has 0 Wins & a -100% ROI over the last 10 days (9 starts)

 

🏇🏾# 8 Law Professor

(Constitution/Haunted Heroine)

M/L : 10/1


Like:

1) Won last race (61K Msw @ SA on Mar. 5th @ 1 m.)

2) Strong Pace Ratings

3) Jockey Kent Desormeaux is Winning @ 40% over the last 10 days (5 starts)

Don't Like:

1) Avg. Speed of 74 is 9th/10

2) Only 2 career starts & moving Up In Class to first Stakes race.

3) Only 1 start for Trainer Michael McCarthy & Desormeaux - (wasn't ITM)

 

🏇🏾# 9 The Great One

(Nyquist/Little Ms. Protocol)

M/L : 8/1


Like:

1) Near the top of the field in Avg. Speed (91 - 3rd/10) & Pace Ratings

2) 5 of 6 career starts at 1+ mi. (2 on turf, 3 on dirt).

3) Highest Speed of 104 earned in Win on Jan. 23 @ SA (61K Msw)

Don't Like:

1) Disappointing 5th place finish in San Felipe S. as he "weakened"

2) Trainer Doug O'Neill w/ Jockey Abel Cedillo have a -60% ROI over the last year (108 starts)

3) Cedillo has 0 Wins over the last 10 days (19 starts)

 

🏇🏾# 10 Defunded

(Dialed In/Wind Caper)

M/L : 8/1


Like:

1) Won last race (76K Msw @ SA on Mar. 6th -6f)

2) Earned a 94 Speed fig. in last race.

3) Trainer Bob Baffert is Winning @ 33% over the last 30 days (30 starts)

Don't Like:

1) First race at this distance & first Stakes race.

2) Jockey Mike Smith is only Winning @ 5% & a -92% ROI over last 30 days (19 starts)

3) Biggest unknown in today's field - ?????



 










Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!


-TSL



/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors

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