Being on an 9-0 run in UFC made me want to put some words on paper and see if I am still on a streak or if it's time to start a new one next week!!! I have four plays I like and as I said on the Podcast Thursday, Clint from @DieHardMMAPod puts out some great content and I use his leans to do my research. If my plays look like his at times, well that's why but I did not steal them! Clint puts in too much work for me to do that to him. With that said, let's get down to business!!! Best of luck if you #followorfade because when you win, we win, and that's what we care about!
Main Card
Hall/Strickland: Fight will not go the distance -170
Look, I know I preach not paying too much juice but I missed on the total under 4.5 rounds and I am not sure someone will end this thing in the first 3 rounds. Being in the smaller cage at Apex will force these two strikers to slug it out at a close distance. The last time we saw Strickland, he was talking his opponent into how to fight him so he wants to go forward for sure. Hall has some of the best KOs in the history of the UFC so I see someone getting the win and not letting the judges take it away from them.
Pizza Play: Hall ML +195
just a hunch here that Strickland is overvalued after a strong return and Hall may catch him
Prelims
Jinh Yu Frey: ML +135
Simply a fade of Ashely Yoder here. I have never been a fan of her style. Neither of the fighters has a great striking rate nor accuracy but Frey has better takedowns and Yoder just has not done anything on the ground from what I have witnessed. This fight will go the distance in my opinion and unless Yoder simply out strikes Frey, I do not see a path to victory so give me the plus money here!
Ryan Benoit: ML -135
I am tailing Clint here after doing some more digging on this one. Both fighters are coming off a loss so they will be looking to secure their next fight with a win here, the other may be done in the UFC. Adashev is fighting in his third UFC bout ever and he has not faired well losing both of his previous fights. His significant strike accuracy is less than 25% giving Benoit the edge there at nearly double the accuracy. Benoit has been off for a year so normally I wouldn't want to go to a fighter on that long of a layoff but I see him as a fighter the UFC wants to be successful as they have pitted him against some of the best in the division over the last four years. He needs a win to stay in the big leagues and he gets it done today against an inferior fighter!!!
Phillip Rowe: ML +150
Clint is on this one too but I think we are looking at this one a little differently as to why we like this one. I am not a fan of first-time UFC fighters unless they are a huge name and is in the prime of their career. Rowe/Cosce is the first fight of the night, this is the first time Cosce has fought in the UFC and is he giving up almost 10 inches on his reach. All these reasons as why I am on Rowe here. Nothing really more to say here except Cosce needs the KO to get the win and I don't see him getting close enough to land that one shot.
Pizza Play: I don't normally say parlay anything but for pizza, we can take the three undercard fights parlayed for +922 so why not? I won't buy coffee for a couple of days if I lose to recoup the sprinkle I threw on this
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us what you think!
-Turtle Sports
/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
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