Turtle Takes MLB 07-03-23
Good morning everyone and welcome back to ME!!! I had to take a bit of a break from making any selections or even leans as I did the unthinkable, I blew my bankroll. Don't feel sad for me I made mistakes, I overspent, I overplayed, and I did not do the things I know are the path to success. The big one is patience is the key to success! I was trying to grind but I go out of whack. Well, I have cleared my head, built a smaller bankroll, the goal being to build this more, and I focused up so that I can get back to helping you be better. Don't make my mistakes and remember this has to be fun or it ain't worth it.
We will be taking it very slow out of the gate playing limited MLB plays until football starts. I am a big fan of first five plays (F5) so that is where I will lean. I can trust most staring pitchers to go 5 innings as to not skew the stats like a bullpen can. Today is just one play as we ease into things. If I have any leans that I don't play, they will be listed below the official plays.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Drew Smiley vs. Julio Teheran
Finky's play F5 U5 (-110)
I looked at this play due to both pitchers being good in these situations. Looking at splits, Teheran is much better at home than on the road with a 1.57 ERA across four starts, and has a 0.75 ERA in day games this year. He also got shelled in his last outing so a good bounce back spot here. Smyly doesn't appear to be someone to lean on but he has been shelled at home, including his last start 5 days ago, while lowering his ERA to 2.74 on the road across 8 starts and a 2-1 K to BB rate. Two reasons this became a play for me is neither team has faced these pitchers this year so we should see a slight advantage for both and both teams are less than 36% to the over in full game in this situation where the home team is the dog.
Finky's Leans (Not actually played just thoughts)
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Domingo German vs. Tyler Wells
Orioles F5 -1/2 (+120)
Wells isn't great on the road and in his only start vs the Yankees, he got clobbered. However, if you look deeper, he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings all coming off three homers, two by Torress with Judge up next. Judge isn't in the lineup and the Yankees haven't been the same. I looked a this because this is simply a play against German after his perfect game. This could be a huge letdown spot for him after the highest of high his last out. No play for me as it did not hit the criteria you see in my play above.