*Heat / Bucks Over 221
*Thunder / Rockets Under 217.5
Miami Heat/Milwaukee Bucks over 221
3:30 PM Pacific
Game one had an explosive first quarter with the Bucks scoring 40 points. After three quarters, we looked to be cruising past the over as the game was on pace for 237 points. That ended when defensive prowess of both teams kicked into gear. The Bucks scored a meager 18 points in the fourth quarter which is *11 points under their season average and crushed everyone on the over. After doing some digging, we have found that both teams are *tied for 7th in offensive efficiency this year - which should continue in game 2 as both teams were above 46% from the floor and over 38% from three-point range in game 1. *The Bucks are above 51% to the over as a favorite, in the bubble, and after a loss. *The Heat are above 52% to the over as an underdog, after a win and are above 61% to the over with one day off and equal rest. **Sharp money is pouring on the over and may push this total up. We played it last game and will be playing the over 221 again! (If Eric Bledsoe does not play again we will be taking this off our card). Heat / Bucks Over 221.
Oklahoma City Thunder / Houston Rockets Under 217.5
6:00 PM Pacific
If you followed us yesterday we made a claim the bubble trends are the way to go and ignored the history of game 7. Well, that did not work out for anyone, so we dove back into the numbers for this play. *The Thunder are 7-7 to the under inside the bubble and the Rockets are 5-9. *Following a loss the Rockets are 19-11 to the under while the Thunder are 56.5% to the under after a win. This game opened as high as 221.5 and the sharp players have moved it way down with **58% of the money being on the under thus far. **Typically game 7 is lower scoring as teams are tired, know the other team better than ever, and are both looking to finish the other team off. Since 2003, the under is 29-19 (including yesterday’s game 7) and we will be playing the under 217.5 here. Thunder / Rockets Under 217.5.
Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5
6:00 PM Pacific
As we dug into this game even deeper we have one more play for you. *After a loss Houston is 13-17 ATS and the Thunder are 28-18 ATS after a win. The Thunder have been one of the best teams ATS all year long and very few metrics where they are below 50% and both of those are with long layoffs and a longer lay off than their opponents. Whereas the Rockets have very few categories when they are above 50% ATS. In this series when Houston is favored the Thunder are 3-2 ATS with 3 outright wins. We are not saying Houston loses, but we do see the Thunder covering and are taking them +5.5 in game 7. OKC +5.5
*Stats via Teamrankings.com
**Stats via The Action Network
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/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors