Sat., March 27, 2021
Turfway Park, Florence, Kentucky
Race 11 / Post @ 6:25 EDT
250K Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)
Derby Prep Race Points: 100-40-20-10
(For our Lundin Line picks for all of the races today @ Turfway Park click 🏇🏾HERE & for our PP Quick Facts on the FL Derby, Click 🏇🏾HERE. )
🏇🏾#1 Like the King
(Palace Malice/Like a Queen)
M/L 6-1
We Like:
Earned highest Equibase Speed figure of 95 in last race - (2/26) John Batttaglia S.
Finished 2nd in the John Battaglia (Gretzky the Great was 3rd)
ITM in all 5 career starts (2-2-1)
We Don’t Like:
Jockey Drayden Van Dyke has no Wins in the past 30 days & has a -100% ROI
Like the King’s Avg. Speed is 79 which has him 8th in the field of 12.
🏇🏾#2 Hush of a Storm
(Creative Cause/Hush Now)
M/L 4-1
We Like:
Won last 3 races (last was the Battaglia on 2/26)
Earned highest Speed of 97 in the Battaglia S.
Avg. Speed (83) has him 4th in the field of 12
Trainer William Morey & Jockey Gonzalez Santiago over the past year have a +70% ROI
We Don’t Like:
Early Pace Rating is 68 which is 10th/12
Gonzalez is only Winning @ 10% over the last 30 days with a -51% ROI
🏇🏾#3 King's Ovation
(Not This Time/Karen’s Silk)
M/L 15-1
We Like:
Earned a Speed figure 81(2/27) & 82 1/3) is last two races.
Trainer Dale L. Romans is Winning @ 13% over the last 30 days.
We Don’t Like:
Hasn’t Won since Oct. 25, 2020
Except for a Place finish on Jan. 30th, has not been competitive.
Avg. Speed of 77 has him 9th/12
🏇🏾#4 Awesome Gerry
(Liam’s Map/Star of Munster)
M/L 20-1
We Like:
1) Over the last 30 days (28 starts), Jockey Martin Garcia is Winning @ 29%,with a +101% ROI.
We Don’t Like:
1) Hasn’t won since Oct. 4, 2020
2) Not competitive since a 3rd place finish in the Mucho Man S. on Jan. 2nd.
3) Finish Pace Rating is 79.2 10th/12
4) Faded & finished 6th in last race (T.B. Derby on Mar. 6th)
🏇🏾#5 Sainthood
(Mshawish/Lemon Hero)
M/L 12-1
We Like:
1) Won last race (60K Msw @ Fair Grounds on Feb. 13th)
2) Earned his highest Speed of 86 in last race.
3) Avg. Speed of 86 is 2nd/12
4) Trainer Todd Pletcher is Winning @ 26% over the last 30 days (65 starts)
We Don't Like:
1) Only 2 career starts.
2) This will be his first Stakes race (has only raced in Maiden Special Weight)
3) Will be Off Lasix
🏇🏾#6 Smiley Sobotka
(Brody's Cause/Dance Thewayyouare)
M/L 15-1
We Like:
1) Finished 2nd & earned highest Speed (89) in the G2 KY Jockey Club S. @ Churchill Downs on Nov. 28th.
We Don't Like:
1) Faded & finished 9th/12 in last race (Sam F. Davis S. @ Tampa Bay on Feb. 6th)
2) Avg. Speed of 74 has him last in this field.
3) Jockey Declan Cannon has a -90% ROI over the last 10 days (17 starts)
🏇🏾#7 Tarantino
(Pioneer of the Nile/Without Delay)
M/L 3-1
We Like:
1) Speed figures in the 90s for past two races (both @ 1 1/16)
2) Avg. Speed of 83 is 4th in today's field
3) 2nd Place in Holy Bull S. @ GP on Jan. 30th, earning highest Speed of 94.
4) Over the past year, Trainer Rodolphe Brisset & Jockey Florent Geroux have +56% ROI
5) Moving Down In Class for this race.
We Don't Like:
1) Brisset's horses are Winning @ 7% when moving Down In Class
🏇🏾#8 Moonlight Strike
(Liam's Map/Twinkling)
M/L 12-1
We Like:
1) Finished 3rd in the G2 S. Tampa Bay Derby on Mar. 6th
2) Avg. Speed figure of 81 is 6th/12
3) Trainer Saffie Joseph's horses have a +23% ROI in Stakes Races.
We Don't Like:
1) Finish Pace Rating of 81 is 9th/12
2) Only 1 Speed figure in the 90s (11/14/20 @ 7f)
3) Over the last 30 day (45 starts), Jockey Manuel Hernandez is Winning @ 7%
🏇🏾#9 Hard Rye Guy
(Hard Spun/La Pomme d'Amour)
M/L 10-1
We Like:
1) Earned highest Speed (92) in his last race (J. Battaglia Mem. S. @ TP on Feb. 26th)
2) Finished 4th/11 in the Battaglia
3) Competitive in all but his very first race.
We Don't Like:
1) Avg. Speed of 76 is 11th/12
2) Poor Pace Ratings (E: 60, M: 69, F: 81)
3) Over the last 30 days (40 starts), Trainer Ian Wilkes has a -70% ROI
🏇🏾#10 Gretzky the Great
(Nyquist/Pearl Turn)
M/L 5-1
We Like:
1) 3rd place finish in last race (Battaglia on 2/26)
2) Highest Speed figure on Nov. 6 @ Keeneland in G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
3) Leads today's field of 12 in Avg. Speed (91) & in Early, Middle & Late Pace.
4) Strong trip in his Win on on Sept. 20 in the G1 Summer S. @ Woodbine.
We Don't Like:
1) This will only be his 2nd race at longer than a mile.
2 Weakened toward a disappointing 6th place finish in the Breeder's Cup Juv. Turf
🏇🏾#11 Dyn O Mite
(Goldencents/Boob Boom Dynamite)
M/L 15-1
We Like:
1) Competitive in last 4 races (2nd, 3rd and......
2) 2 Back-to-back Wins (10/9 W GG & 12/4 @ Fair Grounds - both @ 1 mi.)
3) Trainer Kieth Desormeaux's horses do very well moving from turf to dirt.
We Don't Like:
1) Avg. Speed of 77 is 9th/12
2) Finish Pace of 68 is 12th/12
3) Desormeaux has no starts with Jockey Deshawn Parker
🏇🏾#12 Hockey Dad
(Nyquist/Ann Summers Gold)
M/L 10-1
We Like:
1) Wins in last 3 races (4 total lifetime starts)
2) Avg. Speed of 84 is 3rd/12
3) Avg. Middle & Finish Pace is 3rd/12 & 4th for Early
We Don't Like:
1) Moving Up In Class (this is his first Stakes Race)
2) 4 of his 5 races were at 6f with last race at 1 mile
3) Trainer Doug O'Niel has only 2 starts with Jockey Rafael Bejarano (0% ITM)
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!
-TSL
/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
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