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Jeff Ruby Steaks / What We Like & Don't Like

Sat., March 27, 2021

Turfway Park, Florence, Kentucky

Race 11 / Post @ 6:25 EDT

250K Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)

Derby Prep Race Points: 100-40-20-10


(For our Lundin Line picks for all of the races today @ Turfway Park click 🏇🏾HERE & for our PP Quick Facts on the FL Derby, Click 🏇🏾HERE. )


🏇🏾#1 Like the King

(Palace Malice/Like a Queen)

M/L 6-1

We Like:

  1. Earned highest Equibase Speed figure of 95 in last race - (2/26) John Batttaglia S.

  2. Finished 2nd in the John Battaglia (Gretzky the Great was 3rd)

  3. ITM in all 5 career starts (2-2-1)

We Don’t Like:

  1. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke has no Wins in the past 30 days & has a -100% ROI

  2. Like the King’s Avg. Speed is 79 which has him 8th in the field of 12.

 

🏇🏾#2 Hush of a Storm

(Creative Cause/Hush Now)

M/L 4-1


We Like:

  1. Won last 3 races (last was the Battaglia on 2/26)

  2. Earned highest Speed of 97 in the Battaglia S.

  3. Avg. Speed (83) has him 4th in the field of 12

  4. Trainer William Morey & Jockey Gonzalez Santiago over the past year have a +70% ROI

We Don’t Like:

  1. Early Pace Rating is 68 which is 10th/12

  2. Gonzalez is only Winning @ 10% over the last 30 days with a -51% ROI

 

🏇🏾#3 King's Ovation

(Not This Time/Karen’s Silk)

M/L 15-1

We Like:

  1. Earned a Speed figure 81(2/27) & 82 1/3) is last two races.

  2. Trainer Dale L. Romans is Winning @ 13% over the last 30 days.

We Don’t Like:

  1. Hasn’t Won since Oct. 25, 2020

  2. Except for a Place finish on Jan. 30th, has not been competitive.

  3. Avg. Speed of 77 has him 9th/12

 

🏇🏾#4 Awesome Gerry

(Liam’s Map/Star of Munster)

M/L 20-1


We Like:

1) Over the last 30 days (28 starts), Jockey Martin Garcia is Winning @ 29%,with a +101% ROI.

We Don’t Like:

1) Hasn’t won since Oct. 4, 2020

2) Not competitive since a 3rd place finish in the Mucho Man S. on Jan. 2nd.

3) Finish Pace Rating is 79.2 10th/12

4) Faded & finished 6th in last race (T.B. Derby on Mar. 6th)

 

🏇🏾#5 Sainthood

(Mshawish/Lemon Hero)

M/L 12-1

We Like:

1) Won last race (60K Msw @ Fair Grounds on Feb. 13th)

2) Earned his highest Speed of 86 in last race.

3) Avg. Speed of 86 is 2nd/12

4) Trainer Todd Pletcher is Winning @ 26% over the last 30 days (65 starts)

We Don't Like:

1) Only 2 career starts.

2) This will be his first Stakes race (has only raced in Maiden Special Weight)

3) Will be Off Lasix

 

🏇🏾#6 Smiley Sobotka

(Brody's Cause/Dance Thewayyouare)

M/L 15-1


We Like:

1) Finished 2nd & earned highest Speed (89) in the G2 KY Jockey Club S. @ Churchill Downs on Nov. 28th.

We Don't Like:

1) Faded & finished 9th/12 in last race (Sam F. Davis S. @ Tampa Bay on Feb. 6th)

2) Avg. Speed of 74 has him last in this field.

3) Jockey Declan Cannon has a -90% ROI over the last 10 days (17 starts)

 

🏇🏾#7 Tarantino

(Pioneer of the Nile/Without Delay)

M/L 3-1


We Like:

1) Speed figures in the 90s for past two races (both @ 1 1/16)

2) Avg. Speed of 83 is 4th in today's field

3) 2nd Place in Holy Bull S. @ GP on Jan. 30th, earning highest Speed of 94.

4) Over the past year, Trainer Rodolphe Brisset & Jockey Florent Geroux have +56% ROI

5) Moving Down In Class for this race.

We Don't Like:

1) Brisset's horses are Winning @ 7% when moving Down In Class

 

🏇🏾#8 Moonlight Strike

(Liam's Map/Twinkling)

M/L 12-1


We Like:

1) Finished 3rd in the G2 S. Tampa Bay Derby on Mar. 6th

2) Avg. Speed figure of 81 is 6th/12

3) Trainer Saffie Joseph's horses have a +23% ROI in Stakes Races.

We Don't Like:

1) Finish Pace Rating of 81 is 9th/12

2) Only 1 Speed figure in the 90s (11/14/20 @ 7f)

3) Over the last 30 day (45 starts), Jockey Manuel Hernandez is Winning @ 7%

 

🏇🏾#9 Hard Rye Guy

(Hard Spun/La Pomme d'Amour)

M/L 10-1


We Like:

1) Earned highest Speed (92) in his last race (J. Battaglia Mem. S. @ TP on Feb. 26th)

2) Finished 4th/11 in the Battaglia

3) Competitive in all but his very first race.

We Don't Like:

1) Avg. Speed of 76 is 11th/12

2) Poor Pace Ratings (E: 60, M: 69, F: 81)

3) Over the last 30 days (40 starts), Trainer Ian Wilkes has a -70% ROI

 

🏇🏾#10 Gretzky the Great

(Nyquist/Pearl Turn)

M/L 5-1


We Like:

1) 3rd place finish in last race (Battaglia on 2/26)

2) Highest Speed figure on Nov. 6 @ Keeneland in G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

3) Leads today's field of 12 in Avg. Speed (91) & in Early, Middle & Late Pace.

4) Strong trip in his Win on on Sept. 20 in the G1 Summer S. @ Woodbine.

We Don't Like:

1) This will only be his 2nd race at longer than a mile.

2 Weakened toward a disappointing 6th place finish in the Breeder's Cup Juv. Turf

 

🏇🏾#11 Dyn O Mite

(Goldencents/Boob Boom Dynamite)

M/L 15-1


We Like:

1) Competitive in last 4 races (2nd, 3rd and......

2) 2 Back-to-back Wins (10/9 W GG & 12/4 @ Fair Grounds - both @ 1 mi.)

3) Trainer Kieth Desormeaux's horses do very well moving from turf to dirt.

We Don't Like:

1) Avg. Speed of 77 is 9th/12

2) Finish Pace of 68 is 12th/12

3) Desormeaux has no starts with Jockey Deshawn Parker

 

🏇🏾#12 Hockey Dad

(Nyquist/Ann Summers Gold)

M/L 10-1


We Like:

1) Wins in last 3 races (4 total lifetime starts)

2) Avg. Speed of 84 is 3rd/12

3) Avg. Middle & Finish Pace is 3rd/12 & 4th for Early

We Don't Like:

1) Moving Up In Class (this is his first Stakes Race)

2) 4 of his 5 races were at 6f with last race at 1 mile

3) Trainer Doug O'Niel has only 2 starts with Jockey Rafael Bejarano (0% ITM)





 










Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!


-TSL



/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors

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