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  • Coach JJ

Home Run Line // Season Preview

The late, great Tommy Lasorda said: “No matter how good you are, you’re going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are, you’re going to win one-third of your games. It’s the other third that makes the difference.” So let’s look at the other third and hope we can get in the money.

**Please note the number at the top of each division for any team is there over/under win total from 3/22/21 provided via Circa Sports app**

Want more to get ready for the 2021 Season Check out our bonus podcast 2021 MLB Season Preview


National League West:

Dodgers: 104 Padres: 94.5 Giants: 74.5 Diamondbacks: 74.5 Rockies: 64.5

If 2020 were a full season, the Dodgers would have tied the record with 116 wins. The Padres would have won 100. Giants, D-Backs, and the Rockies would have won 78, 68, and 70 respectfully. Since we’re talking about the other one-third, subtract 54 (162 divided by 3 =54) and that puts us at 62, 46, 24, 14, and 16 wins total for 2020. 2021 projections have the other third going 50, 40.5, 20.5, 20.5, and 10.5. Looking at these numbers, the teams that stick out are the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants. With the D-Backs and Rockies getting worse this offseason, and the addition of games against the rest of the NL, the top 3 teams from the NL West should be more successful this season. Normally, projecting over 100 wins would be considered outrageous, but this year, we can easily see LA and SD completing the task. SF should finish around 80 keeping them under .500 5 years in a row, but above the projection.

Best bets NL West

LA: Win Division SD: Over SF: Over

National League Central:

Cardinals: 86 Brewers: 84 Reds: 79.5 Cubs: 78 Pirates: 58

If 2020 were a full season, the Cubs would have won 92 games. The Reds would have won 84. Cards would have finished .500 with 81. Brewers and Pirates 78 and 51 respectfully. The other one-third numbers go 38, 30, 27, 24, and -3 in order. 2021 projections have the other third going Cards 32, Brewers 30, Reds 25.5, Cubs 24, and Pirates 4. This is always a tough division to gauge because they always play each other well. Looking at the off-season moves, the things that stand out are the Reds and Cubs. The Reds lost more than they gained, while the Cubs gained more than they lost. Also, you can see, it’s pretty safe to always bet against the Pirates.

Best bets NL Central

STL: Over + Win Division CIN: Under CHI: Over

National League East:

Braves: 91 Mets: 90.5 Nationals: 83.5 Phillies: 81.5 Marlins: 73

If 2020 were a full season, the Braves would have won 95 games. The Marlins would have won 84. The Phillies, Mets, and Nationals would have won 76, 70, and 70 respectfully. The other one-third goes 41, 30, 22, 16, and 16. 2021 projections have the other third going Braves 37, Mets 36.5, Nationals 29.5, Phillies 27.5, and Marlins 19. The Braves are healthy and rolling out pretty much the same team as last year. The Mets got way better. The Nats picked up a few pieces. The Phillies did pretty much nothing. The Marlins also did nothing in the offseason. If the Mets and Nats hit their numbers, the Phillies do not. Plus, with the addition of games against the rest of the NL and the AL East, .500 is a tall task for the Phillies.

Best bets NL East

ATL: Win Division + Win Pennant + Win World Series PHI: Under

American League West:

Astros: 88.5 A’s: 85.5 Angels: 83.5 Mariners: 73 Rangers: 67

If 2020 were a full season, the A’s would have won 97 games. The Astros would have won 78 games. The Mariners, Angels, and Rangers would have won 73, 70, and 59 respectfully. The other one-third works out to: 43, 24, 19, 16, and 4. 2021 projects the other one-third as Astros 34.5, A’s 31.5, Angels 29.5, Mariners 19, and Rangers 13. The Astros got worse this offseason. The A’s stayed even. The Angels got better. The M’s and Rangers did pretty much nothing. The projections are thinking the Astros stay healthy (which they did not last year) and Verlander returns from Tommy John surgery faster than the average guy. Unfortunately, he is 38 years old so I would not hold my breath. The A’s have won 97 games 3 years in a row. Here’s to number 4.

Best bets AL West

HOU: Under OAK: Over + Win Division

American League Central:

White Sox: 90 Twins: 89.5 Indians: 81 Royals: 74.5 Tigers: 67.5

If 2020 were a regular season, the Twins would have won 97 games. The White Sox would have won 95 games. The Indians would have also won 95. The Royals and Tigers would have finished with 70 and 62 wins. The other one-third goes 43, 41, 41, 16, and 8. 2021 projects the other one-third as White Sox 36, Twins 35.5, Indians 27, Royals 20.5, and Tigers 13.5. With the Sox getting better, the Twins staying even, and the Indians getting worse this offseason, look for the White Sox and Twins beat up on each other, but to do well against everyone else.

Best Bets AL Central

CHW: Over + Win Division + Win Pennant MIN: Over

American League East:

Yankees: 95.5 Blue Jays: 86.5 Rays: 86.5 Red Sox: 78.5 Orioles: 62.5

If 2020 were a regular season, The Rays would have won 108 games. The Yankees would have won 89 games. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles would have won 86, 68, and 65 games. The other one-third works out to 54, 35, 32, 14, and 11. 2021 project the other one-third to go Yankees 41.5, Jays 32.5, Rays 32.5, Sox 24.5, and Orioles 8.5. If the Yankees can stay healthy, they could win 95 games easily. However, that’s a big if. The Blue Jays got better, so 86 is possible. If the Yankees are not healthy, the Jays go over 86. Remember, they play 19 times per year. The Rays lost a lot this offseason, but 86 is not out of the question. The Red Sox under .500 again? A lack of pitching means yes. The O’s don’t have much of anything going their way, so the 62 wins is accurate. So, here’s to betting the Yankees have a long IL.

Best Bets AL East

NYY: Under TOR: Over + Win Division

World Series:

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox

World Series Champion:

@_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!

-Turtle Sports

/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors

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