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Derby Day at Churchill Downs

Updated: Sep 6, 2020

It's Labor Day Weekend. It's the Kentucky Derby and we're playin' the ponies. What else could you want??? A drink, perhaps? Well, grab that Mint Julep and get ready for the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports!


We've got you covered with our #LundinLine top picks and best bets / horse notes for Saturday's card at Churchill Downs. With seven Stakes over 14 races - culminating with the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby - you'll have plenty of opportunity to get #InTheMoney!

So let's get right to it. You'll find everything you need below. Lets ride!!





Derby Day at Churchill Downs // 05-September

Lundin Line


R1: 4-3-5

R2: 7-5-1-4

R3: 6-4-2-1

R4: 10-11-1-5

R5: 8-10-7

R6: 7-6-11-12 R7: 9-12-3-10

R8*: 5-4-8

R9*: 4-6-9

R10*: 10-7-8-4

R11*: 3-4-7

R12*: 9-10-8-3

R13*: 8-2-1-3

R14*: 18-15-16-17


*Stakes


/ updated 05-September for scratches


 


Lundin Line Stakes Picks


R8: American Turf S. (GII) presented by Smithfield

[5] Smooth Like Strait

During Smooth Like Strait's last race at Churchill Downs, he Won the War Chant Stakes on May 23rd - a race that showcased his dueling ability before he was able to pull away near the eighth pole. In that race, Jockey John Velazquez was at the reigns, as he will be in this year’s running of the American Turf - the first of seven Stakes races on today's card. Smooth Like Strait’s next and most recent start was a Win in the La Jolla H. at Del Mar on August 9th. He broke cleanly in that race and set the pace but briefly lost the lead to Indian Peak, battling back to win by 2 1/2 over Storm the Court and earning his highest Speed figure of 107. He leads today’s field in average Speed with 95 and leads in early (117), middle (111) and finish (102) Pace Ratings. Smooth Like Strait opens the day at 8-5 odds.



R9: Pat Day Mile S (GII) presented by LG and E and KU

[1] Cezanne // Scratched

Cezanne is entering this race off his only non-win this year. He had a good trip until he came down the stretch in his last race. The good news is he ran faster than his average speed notching a figure of 105. Cezanne has the highest class rating of any horse in this field and, with a 66% win rate this year, Cezanne looks to get back in the win column. Trainer Bob Baffert, who is 61% ITM this year, will have his colt ready to go with Florent Geroux aboard. Geroux is 46% ITM this year. Cezanne's Morning Line odds are 3-1.



R10: Iroquois S. (GIII) presented by Ford

[10] Therideofalifetime

Trainer Ignacio Correas is hoping this 2 year old colt will put him in the Winner’s circle for this year’s running of the Iroquois Stakes. Therideofalifetime’s three career starts include a 2nd place finish on June 19th at Churchill, his first Win on July 11th at Keeneland and a Place finish on August 7th in the Saratoga Special Stakes (GII). In that 7th of 8 finish, he earned his highest Speed figure of 95 and his 91 average Speed leads this field of 11. That same figure (91) for average Class also leads this field. Jockey Florent Geroux over the last 10 days has been winning at 25% and is ITM at 58%. Therideofalifetime opens the day at 7-5 odds.



R11: Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (GII)

[3] Juliet Foxtrot (GB)

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione will once again take the reigns for Brad Cox as the two expect to build on Juliet Foxtrot’s Show finish in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes on July 11th at Keeneland. In that race, the winner (Rushing Fall) went on to win the GI Diana Stakes. In the Coolmore, Juliet Foxtrot tied for her highest Speed figure (116). Her 106 average Speed figure leads today’s field and she also leads in early (115), middle (114) and finish (111) Pace Ratings. Brad Cox over the last 30 days is winning at 28% and ITM at 60% and with Gaffalione is ITM 56% over the past year. Juliet Foxtrox has Morning Line odds of 5-1.



R12: Derby City Distaff S. (GI) presented by Derby City Gaming

[9] Bellafina

Bellafina’s last race was in the Ballerina Stakes (GI) at Saratoga on August 8th. A valiant rally at the end earned her a Place finish to Serengeti Empress - who will join her again for this race. Prior to the Ballerina, she Placed on July 4th at Los Alamitos in the Great Lady M. Stakes (GII), with her last Win on May 17th in the Desert Stormer Stakes (GIII) at Santa Anita. She enters today's Derby City Distaff with an average Speed of 100 (3rd of 10) and Pace Ratings that are in the top of this field and a distance (7f) that is in her comfort zone. Trainer Simon Callaghan has had a phenomenal last 30 days, winning at 42%, ITM at 68%, a +38% ROI and with Mike Smith at the reigns, winning at 50%. Morning Line odds for Bellafina are 3-1.



R13: Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (GIT)

[8] Sacred Life (FR)

Sacred Life is moving up in Class for the running of this year’s Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic as he comes off a Win on August 9th at Monmouth in the Oceanport Stakes. In that race, Sacred Life was in the middle of the pack at the 1/2 and then exploded down the stretch and won going away. Prior to the Oceanport, he tied his highest Speed figure (112) at the Runhappy Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (GI), responding well to sustained pressure while on the outside and finishing 4th. (4/12). His 109 average Speed figure is 2nd in this field of 10 and while Sacred Life will likely not be setting the early pace, his 109 finish Pace Rating is 3rd in the field. Chad Brown is thrilled to have Paco Lopez at the reigns as the two over the past year are

winning at 46% and ITM at 92%. Sacred Life opens the day at 6-1 odds.



R14: Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (GI)

[18] Authentic

Authentic began his career on November 9th, 2019, with a Win at Del Mar. Trainer Bob Baffert would then watch him go on to win his next two races, the GIII Sham Stakes on January 4th at Santa Anita (earning his highest Speed figure of 113) and the GII San Felipe Stakes also at Santa Anita on March 7th. In the San Felipe, he beat out a charging Honor A. P. by two lengths, however, in his very next race (the Santa Anita Derby on June 6th) the tables would turn. After an awkward break, he regained his form and pressed the pace but in the final furlong, Honor A. P. would exact his revenge as his final push would allow him to overtake Authentic and win in the clear. Authentic’s next race (his most recent) was the TVG.com Stakes at Monmouth on July 18th. This race would not only see him return to the Winner’s Circle but would showcase an ability to overcome his previous final stretch adversity. With Mike Smith behind the reigns, Authentic finally had a clean break from the gate, took the early lead and was running an easy race and (as the track announcer said) “breezing into the stretch” - but then - N.Y. Traffic made his move and pushed Authentic to (in a sense) re-enter the race and gut out an impressive photo finish Win. That testing - along with his natural speed (leads the field with average Speed figure of 105) - will be critical if Bob Baffert and Jockey John Velazquez will win this year’s Kentucky Derby. And of course, this race will be a rubber match with Honor A. P. coupled with Mike Smith at the reigns. Authentic comes into the Kentucky Derby at 8-1 odds.




Best of Luck to ALL!




Hit us up @TTSportsLines and let us know what you think!

-TSL

/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors

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