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Churchill Downs 🏇🏾 // Sat., May 4th, 2024


🏇 Happy Kentucky Derby (& Star Wars) Day! 🪐🏇

May the Fourth be with you, Always! That's right we celebrate the classics here at Turtle Sports and not just on the track. Today's card needs no introduction as the entire world will have their eyes on Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. The entire sports world stops to watch "The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports" each year, and even the one whos don't pay attention to the ponies all year will want to know who wins the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. We will be headed to the fourth annual Glass Turtle Kentucky Derby Party today and taking our Lundin Line with us to get all our friends to cash some tickets. Yesterday, we started very strong with our plays hitting 7 in a row!!! It took a turn for us after that. If you ever wonder how we track, well let's just say we only consider our top two selections when stating if it was a success or not. I will say, however, in the Oaks, we had a nice showing. We like exacta boxes in races like this so we did hit that and our very own horse racing aficionado Dave W did have Thorpedo Anna as his second choice meaning he beat out the rest of our cappers in that race! Congratulations to him and the connections of Thorpedo Anna on a great race on a sloppy track where she looked the best the entire time. Today the boys get their chance to make history as the featured race is of course the Kentucky Derby. As noted yesterday, the Oaks and Derby are the longest consecutively running sporting events in the U.S. The Derby is a $5M 10-furlong route on the dirt and is the first jewel of the triple crown. This is a 20-horse field for three-year-olds and pits some of the best horses in the world against each other to see how is best at this time. Many times the winner of this race is considered for the Eclipse Award for best three-year-old, so each owner, trainer, jockey, and team wants to win this one, they wouldn't be here if they did not. Just as we followed the Derby trail all year, you can count on us to stay on the triple crown trail the rest of the way.


Today's card has 14 total races with some huge stakes races, 9 to be exact, 8 graded stakes, thousands of people in attendance, and plenty of Mint Juleps to go around. Today marks potentially the biggest day in horse racing in the U.S. if not it is second only to the Breeders' Cup and we are excited to share it with you. The weather will be a bit better today at the track, maybe not here in Northern, CA though, as we will see highs in the low 80s with partly cloudy skies and hopefully no rain. The track is sloppy and the turf is good as of the writing of this post. The track should dry up a bit as the day goes on, so keep that in mind as you look over the selection later in the card.


 

Need help pickin' winners? We've got you covered! Our #LundinLine - (Always Free) top pick and best bets are below in this post. We use them to help narrow the field while putting our tickets together. The first post will be here soon, so don't be late - It's time to get #InTheMoney! 💰🏇🏻💰🏇🏻💰🤑


Oh, and don't forget to follow us @_TurtleSports and subscribe to our site so you don't miss any of the action. You'll be glad you did! Let's Ride!

 

🏇🏻 Churchill Downs // May 4th, 2024 🏇🏾

1st Post @ 10:30 EDT (7:30 PDT)


R1: 5-3-2-4

R2: 8-2-11-6

R3: 11⭑-4-2-3

R4Ⓢ: 6-7-1-8

R5Ⓢ: 14-10-4-8

R6Ⓢ: 10⭑-7-9-1

R7Ⓢ: 7-3-8-1

R8Ⓢ: 12-8-11-2

R9Ⓢ: 5-12-14-7

R10Ⓢ: 2-6-11-3

R11Ⓢ: 6-5-11-8

R12Ⓢ: 17-2-8-4-11

Mr. Fink: 15-8-19-17-11

Bill: 2-4-17-15-12

Mr. W: 17-2-11-4-8

R13: 9-2-13-4

R14: 3⭑-1-4-12


⭑Best Bets

R3: Mindframe (#11)

R6: Vahva (#10)

R14: Gun Party (#3)


Ⓢtakes Races

R4: 200K Knick Go Overnight S.

R5: 600K Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. (G2)

R6: 1 Mil. Derby City Distaff S. (G10

R7: 750K Churchill Distaff (G2)

R8: 600K Pat Day Mile S. (G2)

R9: 600K American Turf S. (G2)

R10: 1 Mil. Churchill Downs S. (G1)

R11: 1 Mil. Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S. (G1)

R12: 5 Mil. Kentucky Derby (G1)


 

W’s 2024 Kentucky Derby Picks

Fierceness (#17)

Sierra Leone (#2)

Forever Young (#11)

Catching Freedom (#4)


Picks based on those I believe are the four best horses in the field.


Fierceness:

I’m not discounting his poor performance in the Champagne S., but I am not allowing it to influence my decision to put him on top. I know a trip similar to his weak performance in the Holy Bull will not bode well for my pick, but I will view that race like I would Patrick Mahomes having a clunker game in November. Regardless of that, he’s still the best player if he makes it to the Super Bowl until he isn’t. Fierceness is the best horse in the field, and I can’t demote him because of a possible future bad break or troubled trip. I will assume that neither will happen and that he will be as good (or perhaps even better) as he was in the FL. Derby. I’m not sure I would have picked him if he drew # 1 but cursed # 17 be damned because that position only strengthens my opinion that he will set the pace and run the race he wants to run. In other words, making this is a race for just Place and Show.


Sierra Leone:

I’m not sure Sierra Leone will get to run the race he wants to run with such a large field. However, the tenacity and tactical speed of this $2.3 million son of Gun Runner puts him in a prime spot to be in the winner’s circle. His very impressive win in the Blue Grass S. was in a field half the size of the Derby but allowed us to see him demonstrate the skills he’ll need to win today as a deep closer. It won’t be easy in a 20-horse field, but give him any chance in the final stretch, and Chad Brown will have his first Derby win.


Forever Young:

Wait - “Don’t you realize that horses from the UAE Derby don’t do well in the Derby?”  Yes, yes, I do. But remember, I am picking based on what I believe are the four best horses in the field, and this horse could be the best in the field (sorry Fierceness). You often hear, “This horse shouldn't have a problem with today’s distance.” Not only is that true of Forever Young, but he should excel at this distance where others may fade. That alone would be enough to include him in my top picks; add in - undefeated in 5 career starts with a horse that looks only to be improving, and we may finally have a UAE Derby as a winner in another Derby.


Catching Freedom:

I’ll be honest. I have other horses I’d feel (almost) equally comfortable selecting for my 4th pick for this year’s Derby (Hey - I’m looking at you Just A Touch, Endlessly, Domestic Product & Resilience). But - did you watch the Louisanna  Derby? Catching Freedom displayed freakishly good closing speed to beat fellow Derby mates Honor Marie & Track Phantom. There really aren’t any “Wow” factors for this son of Constitution, but if he has a chance to display the late burst he had in the LA Derby - it’s game over & Congrats to his trainer, Brad Cox.

 
 

Hit us up @_TurtleSports, and let us know what you think!


-TSL

/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors

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