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2021 Arkansas Derby / What We Like & Don't Like

Updated: Apr 10, 2021

Sat., April 10, 2021

Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas

Race 12 : Post Time = 6:41 p.m. CT

1 Mil. Arkansas Derby (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt (CR: 105)

Derby Prep Points: 100-40-20-10

๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ For our Lundin Line picks for all the races today at Oaklawn Park click HERE!


๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ#1 Super Stock

(Dialed In/Super Girlie)

M/L : 6/1


1) From the back, he fought "through traffic" to finish 4th In the Rebel S. @ OP on Mar. 13th,

2) Recorded his highest Eq. Speed Figure (95) in the Rebel.

3) At this distance/surface, Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. over the past year (325 starts) is Winning @ 17% & Trainer Steve Asmussen over the past year in Stakes Races is also Winning @ 17%.

Don't Like:

1) Hasn't Won since Aug. 11th, 2020 (TX Thoroughbred Futurity S. @ Lone Star).

2) Only Win was in a 5 1/2 f sprint. (@ LS on 8/11/20)

3) Avg. Speed of 84 is 5th/6 & Avg. Finish Pace of 90 is 4th/6


๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ#2 Caddo River

(Hard Spun/Pangburn)

M/L : 7/2


1) Only horse that challenged Concert Tour in the Rebel & save for a bumper car final furlong with Big Lake & Get Her Number, may have challenged down the stretch. (stress - may have)

2) Came into the Rebel with 2 consecutive Wins (including Smarty Jones S. on Jan. 22nd @ OP - 1 mi.)

3) Trainer Brad cox w/ Jockey Florent Geroux are Winning @ 26% over the past year (298 starts)

Don't Like:

1) The disappointing fade & 5th place finish in the Rebel.

2) Until He proves otherwise, I have concern that he can win at this distance.

3) Get Her Number could be in the Early Pace mix this time.


๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ#3 Hozier

(Pioneer of the Nile/Merry Meadow)

M/L : 3/1


1) While he was "no threat" to Concert Tour in the Rebel, a valiant & strategic trip earned Hozier the Place finish.

2) His 4f bullet on Apr. 3rd.

3) Trainer Bob Baffert w/ Jockey Martin Garacia are ITM @ 67%, with a +40% ROI over the past year (9 starts).

Don't Like:

1) Only Win was in a Msw on Feb. 15th @ OP on Feb. 15th.

2) Jockey Garcia has 0 Wins & a -100% ROI over the last 10 days (12 starts)

3) Avg. Speed Fig. of 85 is 4th/6 (Early/Middle Pace Rating also 4th/6)


๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ#4 Get Her Number

(Dialed In/Fancier)

M/L : 6/1


1) Won the Grade 1 Am. Pharaoh S. @ Santa Anita on Sept. 20th. (earned 92 Eq. Speed Fig.)

2) Jockey Francisco Arrieta is Winning @ 21% over the last 10 days (28 starts)

3) Bullet Work on Mar. 27th @ 6f

Don't Like:

1) After the tussle in the Rebel., weakened for a disappointing 7th/8 finish

2) Finish Pace Rating of 90 (4th/6)

3) Trainer Peter Miller has 0 starts with Arrieta over the past year.


๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ#5 Concert Tour

(Street Sense/Purse Strings)

M/L : 1/1


1) Undefeated in 4 career races, last Win @ the Rebel. S. against all but Last Samurai from today's field.

2) Avg. Eq. Speed Fig. of 104 is 1st/6 & Finish Pace of 105 is also 1st.

3) Bullet Work @ 6f on April 3rd

4) Jockey Joel Rosario is Winnig @ 35% over the last 10 days (23 starts) & Bob Baffert with Rosario are Winning @ 47% over the past year (19 starts) with a +45% ROI

Don't Like:

1) Like Essential Quality in last week's Blue Grass S., I honestly can't find anything I don't like about Concert Tour in this race.

2) See (1)

3) See (2)


๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿพ#6 Last Samurai

(Malibu Moon/Lady Samuri)

M/L : 15/1


1) Posted highest Eq. Speed Figure (84) in the Southwest S. on Feb. 27th @ OP

2) 3 of 4 career starts have been at 1 1/16 mi.

3) Trainer Dallas Stewart w/ Jockey Jon K. Court are Winning @ 30%, with a +60% ROI over the past year (20 starts)

Don't Like:

1) 6th/6 in Early, Middle & Finish Pace Ratings & 6/6th with an Avg. Speed of 72.

2) Court is only Winning @ 7% over the last 30 days (42 starts)

3) Disappointing effort & "empty" 5th/7 finish in the Southwest S.


Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!


/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors

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