Sat., April 10, 2021
Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas
Race 12 : Post Time = 6:41 p.m. CT
1 Mil. Arkansas Derby (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt (CR: 105)
Derby Prep Points: 100-40-20-10
🏇🏾 For our Lundin Line picks for all the races today at Oaklawn Park click HERE!
🏇🏾#1 Super Stock
(Dialed In/Super Girlie)
M/L : 6/1
Like:
1) From the back, he fought "through traffic" to finish 4th In the Rebel S. @ OP on Mar. 13th,
2) Recorded his highest Eq. Speed Figure (95) in the Rebel.
3) At this distance/surface, Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. over the past year (325 starts) is Winning @ 17% & Trainer Steve Asmussen over the past year in Stakes Races is also Winning @ 17%.
Don't Like:
1) Hasn't Won since Aug. 11th, 2020 (TX Thoroughbred Futurity S. @ Lone Star).
2) Only Win was in a 5 1/2 f sprint. (@ LS on 8/11/20)
3) Avg. Speed of 84 is 5th/6 & Avg. Finish Pace of 90 is 4th/6
🏇🏾#2 Caddo River
(Hard Spun/Pangburn)
M/L : 7/2
Like:
1) Only horse that challenged Concert Tour in the Rebel & save for a bumper car final furlong with Big Lake & Get Her Number, may have challenged down the stretch. (stress - may have)
2) Came into the Rebel with 2 consecutive Wins (including Smarty Jones S. on Jan. 22nd @ OP - 1 mi.)
3) Trainer Brad cox w/ Jockey Florent Geroux are Winning @ 26% over the past year (298 starts)
Don't Like:
1) The disappointing fade & 5th place finish in the Rebel.
2) Until He proves otherwise, I have concern that he can win at this distance.
3) Get Her Number could be in the Early Pace mix this time.
🏇🏾#3 Hozier
(Pioneer of the Nile/Merry Meadow)
M/L : 3/1
Like:
1) While he was "no threat" to Concert Tour in the Rebel, a valiant & strategic trip earned Hozier the Place finish.
2) His 4f bullet on Apr. 3rd.
3) Trainer Bob Baffert w/ Jockey Martin Garacia are ITM @ 67%, with a +40% ROI over the past year (9 starts).
Don't Like:
1) Only Win was in a Msw on Feb. 15th @ OP on Feb. 15th.
2) Jockey Garcia has 0 Wins & a -100% ROI over the last 10 days (12 starts)
3) Avg. Speed Fig. of 85 is 4th/6 (Early/Middle Pace Rating also 4th/6)
🏇🏾#4 Get Her Number
(Dialed In/Fancier)
M/L : 6/1
Like:
1) Won the Grade 1 Am. Pharaoh S. @ Santa Anita on Sept. 20th. (earned 92 Eq. Speed Fig.)
2) Jockey Francisco Arrieta is Winning @ 21% over the last 10 days (28 starts)
3) Bullet Work on Mar. 27th @ 6f
Don't Like:
1) After the tussle in the Rebel., weakened for a disappointing 7th/8 finish
2) Finish Pace Rating of 90 (4th/6)
3) Trainer Peter Miller has 0 starts with Arrieta over the past year.
🏇🏾#5 Concert Tour
(Street Sense/Purse Strings)
M/L : 1/1
Like:
1) Undefeated in 4 career races, last Win @ the Rebel. S. against all but Last Samurai from today's field.
2) Avg. Eq. Speed Fig. of 104 is 1st/6 & Finish Pace of 105 is also 1st.
3) Bullet Work @ 6f on April 3rd
4) Jockey Joel Rosario is Winnig @ 35% over the last 10 days (23 starts) & Bob Baffert with Rosario are Winning @ 47% over the past year (19 starts) with a +45% ROI
Don't Like:
1) Like Essential Quality in last week's Blue Grass S., I honestly can't find anything I don't like about Concert Tour in this race.
2) See (1)
3) See (2)
🏇🏾#6 Last Samurai
(Malibu Moon/Lady Samuri)
M/L : 15/1
Like:
1) Posted highest Eq. Speed Figure (84) in the Southwest S. on Feb. 27th @ OP
2) 3 of 4 career starts have been at 1 1/16 mi.
3) Trainer Dallas Stewart w/ Jockey Jon K. Court are Winning @ 30%, with a +60% ROI over the past year (20 starts)
Don't Like:
1) 6th/6 in Early, Middle & Finish Pace Ratings & 6/6th with an Avg. Speed of 72.
2) Court is only Winning @ 7% over the last 30 days (42 starts)
3) Disappointing effort & "empty" 5th/7 finish in the Southwest S.
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!
-TSL
/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
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